May 4, 2014: As a bitterly contested election campaign enters its last lap, Sunday Times analyses how the rhetoric and game plans changed
A bitter and desperately fought election campaign is heading to a close. Voting is over in 438 of the 543 seats. The remaining seats will complete polling on May 10 and 12. Besides being the most expensive election ever fought in India, the campaign saw unprecedented media coverage and social media campaigns coming of age. It also saw a lop-sided personality centered focus. But the most striking thing was the way the campaign changed over the past months.
Sept 2013: First-mover advantage
What started off as a battle royale full of lofty ideals, veiled invective and strenuous energy has very rapidly degenerated into hand-to-hand combat and trench warfare. Narendra Modi was declared the prime minister in waiting by the BJP back in September 2013, and he hit the campaign trail straight away, ploughing through the assembly elections in five states in December with an eye firmly on the 2014 general elections. Rahul Gandhi became the chief campaigner for the embattled Congress in January although he was their star campaigner in the assembly elections too.
Modi's whole initial campaign had a single agenda: attack the Congress, ridicule their leadership. In this, he found a ready response in most parts of the country because people were hurting from price rise, unemployment, corruption and other ills. This was a phase of the BJP strategy which saw little challenge from either the Congress or the regional parties. That's because the regional parties were still getting their act together, while the Congress campaign was handled almost single handedly by Rahul. His disconnected and forced style, his abstractions about issues like "women's empowerment" or "right to information" and his naivete were in contrast to the aggression and simplistic message of Modi. Both were magnified by the electronic media and delivered in packaged form endlessly across the country.
Oct-Nov 2013: Subtle saffron
During this phase of the campaign, the BJP tried to present a mellow image, not pushing for divisive issues like the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya or abrogation of article 370. It went out of its way in trying to woo the minority Muslim community. While keeping its guns trained on the Gandhi family leadership and the "weak" prime minister, Modi and the BJP adopted a welcoming, large-hearted posture towards some of the regional parties in the hope of garnering their support.
Exceptions to this were the two strong parties in UP, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. Modi was attacking them from November onwards because the BJP's plan was to capture UP on its own strength, a redux of 1999. The Muzaffarnagar riots in August 2013 had created a communal polarization and the BJP saw itself at an advantage, at least in western UP. Amit Shah, Modi's right hand man, was brought in to organize the BJP's campaign in UP.
Welfare, farewell
Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, meanwhile, were pussy-footing around the Modi attack. Such was the dithering that Rahul openly attacked Modi by name only in February while speaking in Gujarat. It looked as if the Congress couldn't make up its mind between strongly pushing for its welfare policies of the past or adopting a muscular promarket, anti-welfarist line. This reflected the fissures inside its organization and government.
Mar 2014: Friends to foes
Once the election schedule was announced in March, the gloves came off. "People of Bengal will enjoy the benefits of having 'didi' in Bengal and Narendra Modi in Delhi," Modi had said at a public rally in Kolkata on February 5. But now he has changed his tune, accusing Mamata Banerjee of being the same as the Left and even "selling" her paintings for Rs 1.8 cr. Another former ally Navin Patnaik in Odisha too came under attack.
He went soft on Chandra Babu Naidu of the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, pending a deal. Only last year, Naidu had criticized Modi for the 2002 riots. Nitish Kumar of JD (U) who had quit the BJP's alliance in June last year after Modi's rise, came in for vicious attack even as former ally Ram Vilas Paswan was again befriended. In April, Jayalalithaa of AIADMK parted ways with her old friend Modi, igniting a war of words between them. Sanjay Kumar, director of Center for Studies in Developing Societies (CSDS), says it was a clear strategy shift. "As the campaign advanced, BJP has moved to attacking regional parties, hoping to cut into their bases. They also started taking advantage of communal polarization," says Kumar.
April 2014: Priyanka factor
Meanwhile, the Congress seems to have got a late second wind. The Gandhi family, especially Rahul's sister Priyanka, have kept up a steady stream of anti-Modi rhetoric including bring up the snoopgate (Gujarat police's keeping tabs on a young woman allegedly at the behest of Amit Shah). This could be because seats from which Sonia and Rahul are contesting in UP are now going to polls, and the BJP is emerging as a challenger in the state.
Underground Hindutva
But a noticeable change in BJP's political tactics has been its lowering of the guard about the Muslim community. Various regional or local leaders of the BJP and its allies/associates have openly declared anti-Muslim sentiments. This has happened in Bihar/Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra and UP. Modi himself has made aggressive declarations that fall in line with pro-Hindu sentiments, like announcing in Bengal that "Bangladeshi Muslims" will have to pack their bags and leave after 16 May.
The BJP's election manifesto, released on 7 April, reaffirms the Party's commitment to the contentious issues like the Ram mandir, Art 370 and uniform civil code. At the ground level, far from the media's glare, the pro-Hindutva campaign of the BJP has been in full swing. In western MP, unsigned pamphlets carrying Modi and Rajnath's pictures were distributed with messages openly hostile to the minority community. The RSS has been carrying out door-to-door campaigns in MP and Gujarat distributing booklets targeting the Congress.
In the eight days left for this bruising campaign to end, expect more toxic speeches and new lows of attacks because the remaining 105 seats are crucial for all sides in the fray. They cover key battlegrounds in eastern UP, southern Bengal, Seemandhra with multi-cornered contests that could possibly make or break destinies.