NEW DELHI (AP) — A new report says India
could be 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 F) warmer than 1970s levels within 20
years — a change that would disrupt rain cycles and wreak havoc on the
country's agriculture and freshwater supplies, experts said Wednesday.
More flooding, more drought and a spreading of malaria
would occur, as the disease migrates northward into Kashmir and the
Himalayas, according to the report by 220 Indian scientists and 120
research institutions.
The temperature rise, which
could be even more extreme along the coasts, would cause drastic changes
in India's rain cycles that threaten water supplies and agriculture —
the key source of livelihood for most of India's 1.2 billion people.
The report comes out just weeks before the Nov. 29 start
of the U.N. climate summit in Cancun, Mexico, where nations will try
again to reach a global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions
thought to contribute to global warming.
Last
year's U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen ended with an international
pledge to limit the rise of the Earth's average temperature to 2 degrees
Celsius (3.8 F) above levels recorded before industries began pumping
carbon dioxide into the air 200 years ago.
The new
report by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment exceeds U.N.
expert predictions that suggested India could be 2 degrees warmer by
2050.
"There is no country in the world that is as
vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India is,"
Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said in a statement released with the
report on Tuesday. "We must continue this focus on rigorous climate
change science."
India's many ecosystems and
proximity to the equator make it particularly sensitive to climate
change, experts say. The fact most of the country relies on freshwater
sources, rather than desalinating sea water, amplifies the threat of
global warming on society.
The report also says sea
levels will continue to rise, threatening India's more than 4,000 miles
(6,400 kilometers) of coastline.
Mangrove forests
along West Bengal's coastlines "would definitely go underwater," said
Sidarth Pathak, a climate policy official with Greenpeace India. Coastal
cities such as Calcutta, Mumbai and Chennai might also face a threat,
he said.
"This study enables India to look at its
need to adapt to change," Pathak said. "It will put pressure on the
Indian government and international governments to act, and show that
India is a vulnerable country."
India has pledged
to spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on projects to deal
with the affects of climate change. Activists have said that's not
enough, given the challenges in providing water, food and disease
prevention to such a large population.
In Cancun,
countries are hoping for an agreement that commits nations to curb
emissions, to share technologies, and to help poor nations fund projects
for coping with a warming planet.
Copyright 2010 Associated Press.